Friday, September 11, 2020

The ability to predict the future in a crisis

If only we could really see how it all works.



If Premiers Palaszczuk and Andrews know a better way to the tree of knowledge of good and evil,  they need to demonstrate it quickly . 
Mere numbers of self select from defective detective Andrews , or one source for wisdom,  will not cut it with any dualists in the audience . 




We know the agent of evil is flowing past , but as the seed is a few nano-meters wide and without a filter,  we rely , if we are actually looking at the time  , on indirect and reactionary tests  ( the good old PCR test in the case of Coronavirus) )  to detect its presence. 
 Like life though,  this tiny thing its not evil in itself ;  it needs partners to threaten a life and the only evil is when we don't act and listen to all those partners 
When we keep ourselves in ignorance, ,  don't collect or weigh up the 'much advice' we ( If we should be given the mandate of custodians)  need to make as best a decision as we can .


We often miss detecting the real causative process , Too many of our people think correlation is causation and they perpetuate and make concrete the ignorance . Half educated 

Our own ignorance is our enemy and it often only  raises its very ugly head in a crisis - when things stop working. Polys, if you haven't noticed , get away with murder "( of the budget)  most of the time.
These may be good times,  if the crimes of the wastrels is noted and dealt with? 
    
The sub-science and quickfix propensity of the modern age forces correlation to be seen  as causation . This populat bad habit infects public expenditure and prevents it being spent on risk prevention ( eg early intervention , educated risk taking , treatment of the ill ) and diverts much of  into reactive ineffective detective work on masse ,
Leaders MUST stop universities and schools  from promoting skeptical dilettantism - it now drives too much wasted speculation that is NOT science 

Maybe,  we ALSO need a break from how we normally do things to see why things have gone wrong without us knowing or expecting that ?       Ignorance is the enemy 
We know the seed of evil and unsustainability in the way we individually do things is in there somewhere  because the Bible tells us so --

 As for deliberate ignorance  in a matter -- we know well not everyone wants to admit to the deeper  sources  and projection do they ? an unwillingness to listen ??

Without randomized testing,  we are running the risk of missing the source  too, Tracing too is far too reactionary an idea in an emergency to be relied on as a guide to control --- the matter is urgent ; bets to us only what we know has some hope of working ( Not talking experiment , research and elimination ) 

To be ahead of the game
 --- the risk
The idea is father to the bad actions and the horse is long bolted if you want to know "who started it" ( the false idea or the shallow reaction or lack of preventative action ?) 

And while some want to make it their objective to eliminate the evil from the fluid,  most realists  know that such objective would cost the earth  ( why don't polys and wannabes care about the cost benefit) .If I"much advice" says it "wouldn't work " or wouldn't be likely to work ( the risk scientist)spending more money on old ways to fix it SHOULD stop .    

Just as importantly we realists in the field know that in our home we have to live with evil agents. And remember too they are only a seed and a seed can be resisted in most cases;  from growing to become dominant . 

What this means is all those who fear the final impact of  seed must be reminded that  its worst caes without care scenario ( no we are not pessimistic determinists we can't get rid of it but have to live with it . That there are many ways to reduce the seeds impact . Should the seed infact become great , much advice maybe needed to stop its natural course,  however. 


The Pagan Premiers  (Week of the 12th September 2020)
Several Premiers are this week , making the most of the fear of the future , which just happens , it seems , to increase their popularity.
To do that  2 of them  cover their irresponsibility with regard to information flow with a moral failure of their own making. 
----The Queensland premier says The PM is bullying her when he's simply doing his and her job by providing "much advice".under the rule of responsibility. 
----Daniel Andrews , the articulate professor of rule technology would do well to listen as he stumbles to do the same when he is presiding over the same principle of "much advice" and yet  fails to end the curfew because he can't find the source of the " much advice  to do so..More is coming no doubt,

 IF you can't find the author of the curfew, end the curfew you stubborn arrogant and ignorant pedant . 
 
These two Premiers  both know the rules but have forgotten  the principle behind the rule ....a pedants error . 
I suggest they are both disqualified from office by not taking that office seriously enough.  
The created may forget who or what creates the future,  but the creator or observer of the clamoring for honor does not . It's not usually one of us who creates , but all of us ." It wasn't my idea "if we ever go to confession 
Both Premiers , like the old Kings of  England,  would be better off with a theologian to advise them , They might not make such basic mistakes . Their education system may have forgotten history in their faith in evolving , but it seems they are doomed to repeat history by ignoring on the stuff we can build on.   
Some of us  former's would  remind them of the comfort for them and the people in the safety of much advice .
No one wants leaders going off half cocked,,,,,,,, but they do it .
And its no use blaming the CHO , the CMO or the police , of someone in Canberra

 Just as Premiers and PM have the right to make decisions,  the have the right to listen and tell certain people what they are thinking . backwards and forwrdas .

Ignorance is the enemy
.    do it together is the call 
The hero is not the one who comes up with the perfect solution ( it too is process of much advice ) but that wont stop many from trying 

The hero is a poet ( Carlyle)- one who listens and listens well ( takes the "much advice" route)  B4 summarizes for the rest of us  
 

Friday, January 10, 2020

Smoke and mirrors

In a information overload era,  its easy to forget that important information may not be on any big parties radar .  The public or media majority may not even see the issue , let alone hear about how to address it . This phenomena is increasingly common in the West with complex reasons why ,

Those wonderful realists Orwell  and Waugh should be  taken more seriously by those who claim to follow them as reporters  because the ideas of " Scoop" ( missing the real source of news) 1984  ( the PC )   are more relevant than when they talked about a brave new word that is NOW neither brave nor new - just more fearful ,
Reporters need to report others  not speculate themselves on "how" questions when , as any real scientist knows,  how on a complex topic takes time to answer .

The smoke in Sydney last December from extensive bush fires ( 2018 ) got everyone talking when unclear air should make us think more. Even our once more unemotional  ABC got sensationalist.

Question 1 
Smoke indicates unburnt fuel,  so was the claim of the most catastrophic blazes at that time really true ?Answer. Of course not , The unburnt crowns and low velocity winds are signs of much less than catastrophic bush fire conditions. Yet even our own , "you are supposed to stay calm in a crisis" ABCTV  had fire leaping from its news desks

Everyone has an opinion when it comes to risk,  but wannabes are getting desperate and fanatical ( Reality is they are losing power to the net)   That's the news folks , but you won' t hear it from them

Until the advent of the net these wannabes were the most vocal and their loud voices were the ones we heard  . The emergency agents, as  clones of the worry warriors now want us to worry about air quality; unsustainable and unbelievable in the long term;

Question 2
Should anyone trust them to know anything about real world risks? 
. The boy who cried wolf story reminds us that even someone close to the situation can create smoke with mirrors --- especially if they are immature inexperienced and wanting to be noticed .Sometimes,  you can even have a Richard 111 playing ;  just remember if you play Richard , subtle and sly only works for a time or until an adult  speaks to you honestly .


More on the madness surrounding reporting of our unbounded fires , crisis' and catastrophes here

Question 3
Is there something wrong with the preoccupation of progressives with creating new and more effective solutions to what are quite old problems . Ask people who have suffered Change Everything Often CEO's . The preoccupation of progressives with the idea of  automatic progress is a false faith  ,
Answer    Yes
Read Jacques Ellul's work on the technological fix in the "The Technological Society"

Is it smoke or mirrors ?