What should we worry about?

Chalmers smile was notorious, what is happening? 









 I am game if you are, but let's not tackle them all, That would be to wear us all out. For me then and my world of Australia, it will only be worries ones we can deal with with better understanding and sound science in practice.
And IMO its only by taking on board real worries, that we can see deal with and ditch the half baked  or fear only ones.
And for this page only , ones that relate well to today Friday 27th March 2026 

My proposition 
We should worry about the Oil Shock but not the anti Oil crusade .[CO2 worries] 


OIL SHOCK
The Iran blockade of the Straits of Hormuz  this month is overall ( not in some ways) a good thing for Australia.
We cannot all afford to be driving around in 4WD's and our children need the money we save to find a home for themselves and better work . Short term pain yes but long term gain if it drives us to use less and where the increasingly expensive stuff is needed.  There is no need to worry , privately or publicly ; both agencies must plan better ,
Who said the higher prices will last and but if they don't who of us readers wants the complacency if too many Aussies don't take the choice of a balanced and reasonable energy economy.  
 After all  the days of cheap oil is passing and our greed in using it up always needed checking. There is a limited supply and we will have to use less and if we retain sound governments they will do that too .

Keating and many of us  tried to tax those who want to waste fuelbut even an extra cost in registration ( which made sense ) was rejected . Sound supply taxation of excessive choices is not wrong ( but fair ) but always was and is progressive ( we can all have some overseas flights) .
As Jung said the only problem is man ( his  greed) and whether he has the courage to face the truth .
Oil shocks are doing that- a sign that we are heading in the right direction .The future where we use less cheap fuel. 

ANTI OIL CRUSADES 
Its clearly time the West stopped treating carbon dioxide as evil. Many sound physicists agreed over 15 years ago that the concern that the doubling or tripling of its concentration would create warmer air was not only unproven but extremely unlikely (air temperatures being a daily delicacy for one )
the false worry was adopted because like the oil shock syndrome it created pressure to reduce fossil fuel use .
As the links indicate,  the retreat of the weather worriers WWWW to the catch all phrase of their new word Climate Change leaves them with no option but to keep looking for big drama events ; after 15 years with their new theme, they have failed to provide any such dramatic stuff that convinces anyone-
so expect the smiles on the fanatical in charge to change
The very high cost consequences of using such a lie haven't been faced by islanders all over the world  who now buy into only things that don't use alkanes; when they don't need to.

Alkanes are a dense form of renewable energy that will still be used in a thousand years time and
its complete economic madness to use a crass fear to try and manage the huge transition we all must face . Its only by clearing the mud out of the flowing water pressure that we can plan a sound transition. 
Australia now has bought too many towers , hydro schemes, wires panels and batteries which are not cost effective because the incentive is not sound eco sense but is based on unreasonable fear and panic.
Time will hopefully clear the water so we can better see and anticipate and reduce the impact of the inevitable shocks ( Resilience is only established under a regime of pressure -- sound and long term) 

UPDATE   ENERGY SHOCKS & NEW STUFF THROWN OUT ON THE NATURE STRIP 
 WWW have purchased old technology which is now being thrown out on the nature strip .This is new stuff that cost the earth, is not cost effective and will never be fully utilized.  

The perpetuators of myths about [CO2] haven't noticed that by switching away from AGW ( a reasonable thing  for proper discussions of global warming ) they are now reliant on drumming up support for their even more mystical idea of climate change CC  by trying to find really scary weather events and their consequences,: and they are clearly failing to do that. see examples 


If the remaining trench fighters ( looking for scary weather events )don't find some dry fuel , some heavier shot and get some decent rockets they will use up their remaining ammo ( and the patience of the people) on mere scattergun use of bird shot.  

Any students of science still wondering whether Plimer and other well qualified physicists have given up resisting the unproven worry about carbon dioxide, might like to read his more recent response on the subject .

"There are 30 hectares of forest and 74 hectares of grassland for every Australian and each hectare annually sequesters about one tonne of carbon dioxide by photosynthesis. Australia has 4 per cent of the world’s global forest estate, the world’s sixth largest forested area, and the fourth largest area of forest in nature conservation reserves. On the continental landmass, grasslands and forests remove by natural sequestration more than three times the amount of Australia’s domestic and industrial carbon dioxide emissions. The expansion of woody weeds, crops, reduction in regular burning, and vegetation clearing restrictions further increases natural sequestration.

Australian forests adsorb 940 million tonnes of carbon dioxide per annum compared to our domestic and industrial emissions of 417 million tonnes. Add to that the absorption of carbon dioxide in continental Australia to the carbon dioxide adsorption of 2,500,000 square kilometres of continental shelf waters and Australia sequesters some five times as much carbon dioxide as it emits. Australia does more than its share of the heavy lifting for global sequestration of carbon dioxide. "

Australia’s net contribution to global atmospheric carbon dioxide is negative. We are already at Net Zero. This is validated by the net carbon dioxide flux estimates from the IBUKI satellite carbon dioxide data set.

Ian Plimer "

We could all go on . The dummies who keep pushing the panic buttons also never include discussion of radiation equations and what is happening in the seas ( 80% of the earth's surface )

I advised Melbourne University that soil sequestration would largely be a waste of time but we still see Jeremy Clarkson @Clarkson's Farm getting paid to rest his pastures and Atlas carbon offering our money to overseas land buyers to do nothing but buy our land . Such madness Barnaby Joyce

None of this is news or was news to those who study earth science properly.

Such failures that result directly from fear based commitments that have failed to work cannot last in a technological society ( ELLUL)
The rejection of gas use because it is a fossil fuel has created enormous and unnecessary energy shocks and lots of investment in fans , panels , batteries , towers and wires that don't match the need- in for example evenings and mornings but also in autumn and a mismatched load periods.  Such disinvestment has created huge debts, waste and unnecessary angst and mistargeting. No productive economy can afford this unnecessary waste, this lack of precision, and economic incompetence. 

We must be ready for the next incarnation of a distraction from the mere reactionaries and fanatics currently in power. Clearly there are large cohorts of society who do not listen to the science, if that sound science doesn't suit them.  

THE CONSEQUENCES OF DITCHING an UNECCESARY RESTRICTION 
The plants are not fearful of more carbon dioxide - every leaf on the planet is saying thank you for more. ( see previous posts on rate limiting equations in the universe)      



  

Simple minded idealists

 I have nothing but contempt for those hypocritical wannabes who talk about change but don't know how to get there; who think money or just talking about it, creating a tax or an investment haven for it will bring it to pass.

Yet such empty vessels are everywhere, standing as "Independents"  People who just stand for climate change, but expect people to vote for them because their intentions are very noble. Vote for them and you won't have a clue what the next few years will look like - except for the confusion you helped perpetuate. Hitlers intentions to give work to all were very noble. 
Renewable energy is fine ,but zero targets and all this dumber than dumber talk of decarbonization is crap because the world works by recycling its own carbon.
Both major parties haven't got a clue on how the world works and it shows with BOTH of them mumbling complete airy fairy nonsense about where they are going to take us. The only one who has a target in mind is Bandt and he is only offering death.  
As for the government seeding investment, it will most likely only please the gamblers and speculators who even now seek a quick profit in their own name.  
http://quickfiz.blogspot.com 

A letter to MORRISON who has swapped truth leadership in science and technology to being misled by the gamblers and speculators in his own party  ( the pay to sequester" crparty ap that some of his party members have put forward )   

https://docs.google.com/document/d/14UMlbjPTJa0hBItCWeGgt8WH2gGmo7SkFbo3APfJSw4/edit?usp=sharing

 

Damned lies stats and destructive distractions

 Most of us scientists can cope with the wannabes desperately  digging through the permutations and combinations  in search of  their very own perfect set of numbers.( They do it all the time, even though they should trust us to give stupid stats their true significance -- what is truth? )   
It s only when that dumb and dislocating business forces a contravention of plain moral and ethical stupidity,that  I draw the line.
That I call Parliament to redraw the line 

So it seems did Jesus 
The recent census and campaigns around its changes,  focus on the vain attempt  to try and measure something smaller than  the size of mustard seed 
That's OK  BUT 
when such a suspect  scientific imperative comes to try to measure  the depth of children's faith commitment it must be abandoned ,
Right here right now before the date is officially commemorated  . 

What I would like you to consider is that the current requirement to ask children their religion is bordering on obscene, Take the children off the religious page and revise that page  to be clearer in testing intent  and  what it was intended to do and test attendance/ commitment. 

Jesus Christ ( recorded 3 times in the NT) was very clear about trying to measure the size and focus of a child's faith .He condemned those who sought to discourage faith in children and why shouldn't we !
Read it ---( start at Matt 18:6 for a start- recorded in three gospels ) 



Maybe " baptisms, confirmations , attendance "would be better ( if not perfect) than this current almost useless ephemeral nonsense and counterproductive and destructive meddling out of Canberra. 


On other confusions 

1. Basic assumptions  of the survey are  wrong   If the Committee consulted the psychological  profession it would have ben told that all people are assumed to have a religion . Making the "no religion" box is  a irrational construct to suit a lobbyist group . . 
Why should  the many who have no affiliation  be forced to choose the "no religion group"?
Why not have a choice that makes sense ;  " Don't know " box in line with normal surveys ...and also placed at the bottom to avoid lazy thinking responses  etc 

2. Canberra have dopily opened the door to donkey voters.
By placing it first the bureau have slipped up badly as scientists .Sure that first easy box is  going to get more  numbers his year than ever efore  . big deal - what does it really mean ?  
 If it doesn't maybe Aussies care more for their kids and the need for faith of some kind than Census 21 realises 

3.The questions don't test commitment  which was and should still be the more objective and useful aim    
For eg 
1. In would help clarify the question of lapsed members, who is sending their children to church schools but is not an adherent etc etc. 
2. It would provide a more sound stat for next time .Wise Australians recognize that Muslims adherents are growing and their influence too - not to be feared but to be understood .
. 

Religion motivates so  having " no religion "usually means you need like Robespierre ( who killed the church) to invent one 

See at the end his hymn to reason . https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0tafP8HOok  

The ability to predict the future in a crisis

If only we could really see how it all works.

If Premiers Palaszczuk and Andrews know a better way to the tree of knowledge of good and evil,  they need to demonstrate it quickly . 
Mere numbers of self select from defective detective Andrews , or one source for wisdom,  will not cut it with any dualists in the audience . 

We know the agent of evil is flowing past , but as the seed is a few nano-meters wide and without a filter,  we rely , if we are actually looking at the time  , on indirect and reactionary tests  ( the good old PCR test in the case of Coronavirus) )  to detect its presence. 
 Like life though,  this tiny thing its not evil in itself ;  it needs partners to threaten a life and the only evil is when we don't act and listen to all those partners 
When we keep ourselves in ignorance, ,  don't collect or weigh up the 'much advice' we ( If we should be given the mandate of custodians)  need to make as best a decision as we can .

We often miss detecting the real causative process , Too many of our people think correlation is causation and they perpetuate and make concrete the ignorance . Half educated 

Our own ignorance is our enemy and it often only  raises its very ugly head in a crisis - when things stop working. Polys, if you haven't noticed , get away with murder "( of the budget)  most of the time.
These may be good times,  if the crimes of the wastrels is noted and dealt with? 
    
The sub-science and quickfix propensity of the modern age forces correlation to be seen  as causation . This populat bad habit infects public expenditure and prevents it being spent on risk prevention ( eg early intervention , educated risk taking , treatment of the ill ) and diverts much of  into reactive ineffective detective work on masse ,
Leaders MUST stop universities and schools  from promoting skeptical dilettantism - it now drives too much wasted speculation that is NOT science 

Maybe,  we ALSO need a break from how we normally do things to see why things have gone wrong without us knowing or expecting that ?       Ignorance is the enemy 
We know the seed of evil and unsustainability in the way we individually do things is in there somewhere  because the Bible tells us so --

 As for deliberate ignorance  in a matter -- we know well not everyone wants to admit to the deeper  sources  and projection do they ? an unwillingness to listen ??

Without randomized testing,  we are running the risk of missing the source  too, Tracing too is far too reactionary an idea in an emergency to be relied on as a guide to control --- the matter is urgent ; bets to us only what we know has some hope of working ( Not talking experiment , research and elimination ) 

To be ahead of the game --- the risk
The idea is father to the bad actions and the horse is long bolted if you want to know "who started it" ( the false idea or the shallow reaction or lack of preventative action ?) 

And while some want to make it their objective to eliminate the evil from the fluid,  most realists  know that such objective would cost the earth  ( why don't polys and wannabes care about the cost benefit) .If I"much advice" says it "wouldn't work " or wouldn't be likely to work ( the risk scientist)spending more money on old ways to fix it SHOULD stop .    

Just as importantly we realists in the field know that in our home we have to live with evil agents. And remember too they are only a seed and a seed can be resisted in most cases;  from growing to become dominant . 

What this means is all those who fear the final impact of  seed must be reminded that  its worst caes without care scenario ( no we are not pessimistic determinists we can't get rid of it but have to live with it . That there are many ways to reduce the seeds impact . Should the seed infact become great , much advice maybe needed to stop its natural course,  however. 


The Pagan Premiers  (Week of the 12th September 2020)
Several Premiers are this week , making the most of the fear of the future , which just happens , it seems , to increase their popularity.
To do that  2 of them  cover their irresponsibility with regard to information flow with a moral failure of their own making. 
----The Queensland premier says The PM is bullying her when he's simply doing his and her job by providing "much advice".under the rule of responsibility. 
----Daniel Andrews , the articulate professor of rule technology would do well to listen as he stumbles to do the same when he is presiding over the same principle of "much advice" and yet  fails to end the curfew because he can't find the source of the " much advice  to do so..More is coming no doubt,
. 
 IF you can't find the author of the curfew, end the curfew you stubborn arrogant and ignorant pedant . 
 
These two Premiers  both know the rules but have forgotten  the principle behind the rule ....a pedants error . 
I suggest they are both disqualified from office by not taking that office seriously enough.  
The created may forget who or what creates the future,  but the creator or observer of the clamoring for honor does not . It's not usually one of us who creates , but all of us ." It wasn't my idea "if we ever go to confession 
Both Premiers , like the old Kings of  England,  would be better off with a theologian to advise them , They might not make such basic mistakes . Their education system may have forgotten history in their faith in evolving , but it seems they are doomed to repeat history by ignoring on the stuff we can build on.   
Some of us  former's would  remind them of the comfort for them and the people in the safety of much advice .
No one wants leaders going off half cocked,,,,,,,, but they do it .
And its no use blaming the CHO , the CMO or the police , of someone in Canberra

 Just as Premiers and PM have the right to make decisions,  the have the right to listen and tell certain people what they are thinking . backwards and forwrdas .

Ignorance is the enemy .    do it together is the call 
The hero is not the one who comes up with the perfect solution ( it too is process of much advice ) but that wont stop many from trying 

The hero is a poet ( Carlyle)- one who listens and listens well ( takes the "much advice" route)  B4 summarizes for the rest of us  
 

Smoke and mirrors

In a information overload era,  its easy to forget that important information may not be on any big parties radar .  The public or media majority may not even see the issue , let alone hear about how to address it . This phenomena is increasingly common in the West with complex reasons why ,

Those wonderful realists Orwell  and Waugh should be  taken more seriously by those who claim to follow them as reporters  because the ideas of " Scoop" ( missing the real source of news) 1984  ( the PC )   are more relevant than when they talked about a brave new word that is NOW neither brave nor new - just more fearful ,
Reporters need to report others  not speculate themselves on "how" questions when , as any real scientist knows,  how on a complex topic takes time to answer .

The smoke in Sydney last December from extensive bush fires ( 2018 ) got everyone talking when unclear air should make us think more. Even our once more unemotional  ABC got sensationalist.

Question 1 
Smoke indicates unburnt fuel,  so was the claim of the most catastrophic blazes at that time really true ?Answer. Of course not , The unburnt crowns and low velocity winds are signs of much less than catastrophic bush fire conditions. Yet even our own , "you are supposed to stay calm in a crisis" ABCTV  had fire leaping from its news desks

Everyone has an opinion when it comes to risk,  but wannabes are getting desperate and fanatical ( Reality is they are losing power to the net)   That's the news folks , but you won' t hear it from them

Until the advent of the net these wannabes were the most vocal and their loud voices were the ones we heard  . The emergency agents, as  clones of the worry warriors now want us to worry about air quality; unsustainable and unbelievable in the long term;

Question 2
Should anyone trust them to know anything about real world risks? . The boy who cried wolf story reminds us that even someone close to the situation can create smoke with mirrors --- especially if they are immature inexperienced and wanting to be noticed .Sometimes,  you can even have a Richard 111 playing ;  just remember if you play Richard , subtle and sly only works for a time or until an adult  speaks to you honestly .


More on the madness surrounding reporting of our unbounded fires , crisis' and catastrophes here

Question 3
Is there something wrong with the preoccupation of progressives with creating new and more effective solutions to what are quite old problems . Ask people who have suffered Change Everything Often CEO's . The preoccupation of progressives with the idea of  automatic progress is a false faith  ,
Answer    Yes
Read Jacques Ellul's work on the technological fix in the "The Technological Society"

Is it smoke or mirrors ?

Heeding the words of tyrants

Hitlers words are rarely discussed, even though his actions took our worlds away.
Can the con  happen again today , especially if we don't really listen to what men say? . Like home maybe we only think we know what was said in 1930's in Germany and why it worked CATASTROPHE .
What was it that meant only God botherers like Bonhoeffer saw through the words ? That some never see through the PC of the occasion and get in more than a war of words . look up the bard 


How deep runs the disease with words ? 
Do we even NOW realize that its when a large number of people think they are doing the right thing when infact they haven't thought it through .  Orwell said that we act on feelings and are not rational-- the big risk is that we will be conned by mere words - our own words?  , The greatest evil is always done in the name of the best intention; really nice sounding words / solutions .

Like that other great tyrant Richard III there is a hidden consensus that is subtle, sly but very bloody .

Towards consensus ?
What Adolph and Richard shared was a contempt for the superficial and especially the sentimental . It didn't take much to use that hypocrisy once it was exposed  . 

Why worry / is war imminent or just predictable /likely ? in this unweeded garden 
Would wars be stopped by dealing with hypocrisy and guilt --openly by repenting and facing the truth about our sins. ( even when they sound nice )
 What would happen if , rather than hiding behind the post christian cancer of letting everyone do what they like and claiming disadvantage and nature as the causes of our corruption of the truth;
What would happen if we took  a choice  to change , confessed that we are on the wrong track .and started weeding again  If it doesn't work for the good weed the path.

The precarious days of the precariat

In late 2019 most of sense our vulnerability - jobs , work , income and lack of sources of inspiration .And the more mature of us sense the raging cancer like costs of easy cynicism . The rare ones remember the road to real inspiration and the worthwhile costs in highly productive investment. Jaques Ellul ( the Technological Society ) predicted these days of the Precariat . nearly 100 years ago. We don't plan we don't see we refuse to see - our children are worse off than they should be considering our wealth . Ellul expected we would be here because we have chosen to be here. And like typical unrepentant self blinkering human beings, we wouldn't accept responsibly for our choice to go for the technological fix. Instead of facing the truth and light and acknowledging our misauthoring , we would blame others, a process we can't control or call the issue a disease . Nature is now as it was for Hitler and all modern tyrannies the fall back position for our heresies and dehumanizing of ourselves and others. What efficient protective +highly productive jobs have we scrapped in choosing the latest motion and speculation. Adopting the empty promises of the progressives .

Man can be bad but meddling is madness

Yes none of us who actually worked together to protect Victoria's environment would have ever expected , in our wildest dreams,  the blatant ignorance of regenerative ecology to last so long, let alone become entrenched in the dumbing down of government. On the occasion when Wilderness society whims to close the forest become official government policy .
Timber is just one resource they have stuffed up. How much did Lisa Neville's use of our $10 go to filling up our reservoirs? How far has our $150 fire levy gone in decreasing damage and discouraging high risk takers?

Wise use of our resources now comes last to appeasing the false guilt of consumers.and covering up their astounding  dumb and narrow minded decisions.
 Instead of wisdom we get the waste and the misdirected empty headed arrogance of wannabes
Instead of honesty and confession , we get coverup . From our own broadcaster , instead of science and  confession ( we don't know )  , we get subtle sly and bloody :http://ondewolf.blogspot.com 

The great jobs our children might have had making sure truly scientific safe sustainable decisions were made each week ( in the sensitive, but resilient world) , are now lost to big nobs playing horrendously expensive games with helicopters, pumps and protecting the fanatical  and stupid . 

There is no threat from changing the definition of Marriage

The wholesale rejection of any problems with major changes to the language of marriage has deeply disturbed many of us
Subject : Same Sex Marriage Voting  in Australia ( voting letters go out first week of September 2017

Thankfully,  for me at least,  this focus on the heart is not an issue up front for me because politics ( and therefore civil marriage )  must be,  underneath all the hype, practical  .
Unfortunately though the outcome could well be more about simple emotions than public good for all and children and parental influence in particular.

The practical politics of marriage

Civil marriage is necessary/good idea for a number of reasons As as wisely Susan neiman says when reason is missing as it is  -history &good  practice support it . On the negative side (because laws in a libertarian country should only be implemented when really necessary)  some clear statute involving mothers fathers and children and the state are  necessary because marriage creates the biggest risk of all ( children) and caring for the products of failure is partly ALL of our responsibility ( via taxes ) On the positive side, setting a high bar for fathers,( in particular ) and the community to do their darnedest to make it work makes perfect practical sense .

The expected outcome of the survey IMO
 If it doesn’t cost anything and it makes you feel good ,most people will buy it .. too simple for words!

So what influence are other emotions having ?
Christians are particularly passionate about marriage . That strong passion could be enough to rile non- Christians and bigot haters to vote yes .
If reaction to passion isn't enough,  then the simple appeal to the heart for one small group complaining  of exclusion may well be.
Who needs reasons when you have marketing..  simple buyin


Any place for reality therapy ?  A bit of perspective from history 

A. In the very best libertarian tradition we outta say thus far and no farther with the lawmakers - only laws that are necessary  ( ABOVE )Don't mess up the straight marriage focus
The Russians fell for the Orwellian described simplicity around the concept of equity  -unsustainable

B.  In the very worst tyrannical tradition,  we have self centered groups playing with words in their own interest.  In the very worst tyrannical tradition yes advocates tap the emotional rather than the rational energy of the people.

What are we seeing so far ? 

Having watched a few interviews on ABC recently ( Sep 7) with opposing views featured,  I was never more struck by the self-centeredness of the Yes lobby and their blindness to the adverse and other probable  consequences of their own willfulness -esp for children.

Wanna Buyin to the big picture?
watch the film BABE 

Which Aussie Pollies are most like President Trump

Most of us are surprised that Donald Trump has become the new  president of the United States .
No one like him has ever got the opportunity to change the world in the USA .
Maybe this is happening elsewhere - esp with the French the Greeks. Leaders who have no background to back them.  
Without taking sides,  I am suggesting we discuss the TRUMP PHENOMENON (TP )and whether we see signs of it in our own country .
Former advisor to the Greek Presidents has helpfully talked ( on ABC Radio National) to the phenomenon of insiders and outsiders in leadership struggles . Why is this news to us ?

 If he is right,  both the left and the right are in deep trouble - because these old clubs and their rhetoric are not working - Outsiders are more likely to take control than we ever expected ,

Clearly the once hallowed shared doctrines of reason and reasonability working for the good of democracy  are being REJECTED- the values that were our democracies food are long gone and now the mere shell is about to fall.
 Whether left or right , the ruling party in a  democracy in a technological world that doesn't work is thrown out . The parties are not only being thrown out , they throw their own out . The reasons espoused by the powerful old groups are limiting them
Please contribute your thoughts on the phenomenon

Let me suggest that , as Bertolt Brecht said of Hitler (" the bitch that bore him is in heat again")" that a  particular person may not be the best way to understand the phenomenon that rightly concerns us .

Some characteristics of TP are listed in an earlier post .

I will suggest that the current Leader of the greens Richard di Natale is the most Trump like  because the only thing that seems to matter to him is his passion for what  he thinks is needed . He is the most convinced that  he and the greens could make Austalia great again - but really has no idea how to really do it .

Sure he talks about worthy causes but where is his ability to negotiate and appreciate real world solutions and the other side of the praxis  story?
Donald trump seems to exhibit TP less after 100 days than Di Natalie seems to after years in office . A privilege of unrepresentative opposition ?
If we get an odd ball - which is worse s>
One who admits he doesn't know or one who for years thinks he knows ? 

The Left have a got a problem - and it is a big problem

The Left  don't really know what they stand for. Did they ever ?  I think they did, but its some way back now .
Like the chameleons most have them have been for a generation, they have not noticed how all their color changes have impacted on their credibility. Taking their lead from the  "cynical of business "extreme left they have irresponsibly justified ignorance as the end of their discussions - leaving the public ignorant of the complex job of parliament.

 They talk of listening to scientists but they themselves are not scientists and do not show the discipline a scientist must show to influence/ properly support practical outcomes that will work . Proper reporting would have saved them but no-- they have to comment .
The leaders have got comfortable and the public service, which has provided free homes for so many of them, doesn't challenge them deeply enough to be truthful and truly accountable on the wicked and reason short  problems of politics . To make things worse they effectively choose to waste moneyon unworkable solutions .  being more idealistic than practical.
They talk about science credibility, but they don't allow science controversy ( real life), showing they haven't a decent scientific board of review amongst them . Oh yes , they have broad range  of pedantic speculative theoreticians with degrees . Yes profs have their place, but if it was a panel advising industry they would be accountability there ; not peer reviewed papers : briefs to credit or crucify them --like those of us in industry have to do daily. The recent  attack on credible physiology / pharmacology on Catalyst revealed a profound disease/ deficit in the ranks
Brian Schmidt lost a great opportunity on QandA to give CSIRO credit by not agreeing with  the audience ( who talked of the problem of alternative facts )
Brian should have said  that the ABC gets it wrong and worse - it can muddy the water for decades as the media political train on water did in 2006-7 drought  In the most ridiculous of ways,  the ABC checks it own facts .( which takes just enough time to enable the leader to move on )
By chasing their version of the latest in science ( sexy stuff ) ABC have been party to the lefts destruction of the hard substance --  the ongoing building of professions and  politically effective consensus policy advice on science ( the substance on water or conservation or eg ) many other areas also , Desperately the dummies focus on something simple like coal .

Everyone know the elephant in the room on water on Qanda was the highly favoured Flannery and in other areas , the entourage of chosen experts who agree to be ABC - if you were a practical scientist in the area in which Robin Williams and Phillip Adams constantly venture WEEKLY you would have switched off like us,  in disgust -decades ago. .Time for action to give someone else a go  .

The comfort zone of the lefts  urban mandated honor (they are the easy choice for the growing working class and disaffected youth) has hid the reality that the city is home to the  advertisers/promoters  of childish impulses and the poor me cries who have gotten us to this day when the toxic cult of sentimentality rules .
What they forget in all their righteous indignation about Trump is that they have had the power and its not working . (They laud democracy but its the urban hothouse that both gives them power and keeps them away from eco reality)
The left  are so short of ideas they can  talk about "more money for this and that "as if mere money  is the limitation. Everyone knows the left just wastes money cause it doesn't concentrate on effectiveness , Speaking of left with credibility - remember John Cain ?
What the left  forget in all their righteous indignation about Trump is that they have become religious themselves . The modern left is in some sort of self proclaimed  cloud thinking they hold the high moral ground . From  calling morality bunk in the 70's these immature adults have managed to convince them selves they are the only party who really cares -- they have become more marxian than the marxists of old . Defending the poor and the disadvantaged is fine but the left had the power and did not make their money work . Even Gonsky is about money we may not have?
The only food samaritan  pay for the needs of others out of their own pocket .And real needs come first
Reminded as they were on Qand A on monday that these worries about the bad behavior of men convinced themselves that they needed to make water , The imposters  will not recant , even though they have burdened their own young people with debts over water that are not needed . Now there  attention has turned to coal. where is the ABC report on current energy sources and how they are used . No way were they ever going to alert us to the power crisis .

Yes the religious left are so high and mighty they think that their moral choices  entitle them to spend OUR money on criticizing the opposition in public . ( Josh Frydenberg ) Their fanaticism in doing this sort of unacceptable spending is evident . Vic Labor have corrupted the good name of science by putting the departments badge on the sign . The new false values of the public service ( once held to account for not showing them) are on full show at Camberwell Junction .

The thing about religiousness is that it makes you think you know . The lefties in church "know "that CC is going to kill the world and they must do all in their power to stop it .Despite the doubts of outsiders the religious left are tied down to both a damnation and a salvation process. The real weakness in this new faith is its hardly convincing about the damnation process let alone the salvation . Nobody in church doubts that " a big tax" will bring the heretics to heel .

Most galling is that scientists who arr supposed to back both processes are not getting any work except that dictated to by the church. Too bad if informed and trained students of environment can't get work because the politics and problem solving of environment has become so simple.

This sign is proof that that the Victorian Labor Party don't know what they're doing in science but they are ALSO prepared to corrupt their science advisors department to do so , How much different is ABCTV? Can anyone tell the difference ?

Why don't they get whats funny on the ABC?

Often because they are not serious . The ABC cultivates the main qualification for authorship to be a reactionary . That means in thinking terms they don't really know what is --- the baby goes out with the bathwater , They are NOT funny because they don't know whats serious ( Peter Ustinov)
They have tried everything and learnt little -

The Trumpers and the waste they create

Note on the name TRUMPERS ( 17th March 2017) While stimulated by the phenomenon of President Donald Trump and his quickfix solutions, my idea in making up the word TRUMPERS is to find a new expression for a very old disease phenomenon in the recent Western tradition-- the word also carries the image of a pretty card which miraculously breaks the rules of reason in the game. There is a lot of sound common sense in playing cynic with every new complete savior technology and quick fix presented by wannabes .

This is what the well respected sociology Professor Jaques Ellul tried to tell the West nearly one hundred years ago . A.N Whitehead did also

The new saviors are typically not COMPLETE solutions ,There is ALSO a lack of real perspective , the need for catch up and a failure to really face the limits of what caused the problem .

Some other catch ups to come

1. - a lack of recognition that Trumping is what got our wannabes to try and make water -----Australia
2. -- the lack of recognition by taxpayers that Trumping ideas are what many poorly trained ignorant ideas people public servants licence themselves to practice when they sit down to work each day (Rob Sitch's honesty in Utopia ABC)
3. - the suck eggs revelations we see trotted out post disaster by the press. Many disasters have a strong man made component that is not acknowledged, let alone understood by observers in the media.( Not OUR problem)
4. -unseen consequences :the experiments this excitement about "new" creates results IS defunding of the old practices and any great commitment to their further refinement ( huge issue across the public service where its growing inability to do old things better is testimony to its changes of direction ( The imposition of a CEO - a change everything often type leader??) loss of real understanding of the wickedness of political problems.
5. - ignorantly asserts world leadership of the particular wannabe and the need to change things that aren't broken. Fixers are out of a job and sycophants get one
6. - As its driven by public servants ,wannabes and the public desperation for hope, it usually lacks cost control, realism and sound cost benefit analysis. It is rightly asserted as quick fix
7. - the dressing up of old as new is an irrational and unsound reality . windmills , fossil fuel and hydro use are not new ( all advocated as if new today

Minor things to check before Weatherill, Freydenberg and the public will see daylight ( only a few)

-The cost to the community of high momentum additions to cars and trucks with heavy batteries

- the inefficiency of DC power for reliable delivery of power over distance.

-foot prints of creation are ignored in Li-Ion case just as they are if we use gas instead of coal.( CO2 outputs similar

-- the way they have switched on and off solar and gas research at a whim

- limits of resources to build such a huge volume of batteries

-the lack of efficient opportunities and probable poor cost benefit of new hydro in Australia

-ongoing explosions risks as there is no likelihood of ever getting better than storing 1,5 volts per cell making chemical storage of KW and high voltage DC a costly and risky physical presence -- their own excitement generated in part by their own ignorance of how things work ( yes they are not alone !)

Most importantly The HUGE and ever present problem is the lack of perspective NOT provided to the public by our problem solving press and their vulnerability to Trumping philosophies.

example :No press campaign as yet stated the LIKELY reality that petrol will be the most likely future fuel because of its easy transport , high energy value and ease of manufacture from algae and other renewable plant material.

Perspective is what we are denied by trusting in Trumpers.; these well dressed glorious desperate dinosaurs that call themselves gods. .

The appalling ignorance and dishonesty of our approach to environmental protection

It will be twenty years this year since the many deaths from 2 building failures at Thredbo created Australia's biggest Coronial enquiry. 
The photo shows the now empty site from the Alpine way above the 2 buildings involved. I wrote a suggested and finally proved correct basis for the tragedy to that Coronial enquiry. 
My work is in remote sensing ( predictions based on geology soils slopes, landscapes runoff, infiltration and vegetation from maps/ photos ;
As its very hard to get real " landslides" in weathered granite ( which this was ) I just couldn't see how the slope failure would happen without negligence of some kind. I knew many examples of both " "natural "and man made "slope failures" ( the proper term)
In 1997 when it happened, I had been looking after the prediction and remediation of landslides in the biggest landslide area in Australia.. You win some you lose some .
While many want to call it Australia's biggest natural disaster ( and blame nature not ourselves? ) , I wrote in 1997 that it was probably an avoidable planning disaster - which is what it proved to be .


Even today, there is still a high risk of slope failures simply because we don't plan the use of soils and water runoff very well.

Our polys should hang their heads in shame because they haven't the guts to train people to plan our environment properly 

Corruption in the world economic system

Great to see Stephen Long chasing the financial structure run by Indian overseas investors .I hope he uncovers the truth and the implications for our government in dealing with Adani . I fear there is too little focus on the former and too much on the latter . A short look not a long look is not a good look - but normal
 We baby boomers need to face the fact that we have been ignoring the dangers beyond our shores and focusing too much on the unconvincing and unjustified attacks/debilitating cynicism  on our own system .The Libs are not the worst disease affecting the country.
We gave money to the poor , often ignoring the fact that we can't really help countries whose own rich exploit them . We are not real wise about real politics - esp when we wander off telling others "How "to do things .
If we are going to do more than be good samaritans with individuals ( our historical and limited territory) we must not ignore the evil which corrupts and can corrupt even our own eco system.

As Susan Neiman has pointed out we lack wisdom in this area and in particular the post Christian reactionaries lack wisdom about evil .
The only way you can tackle real politic is to understand it and understand it in our own system.  Most important of all - understanding it as it happens close to home .
Only by being complete political and jericho road realists can we hope to really keep Australia great .

Do we not also have to decide whether our cynicism. ignorance and fear of evil  is preventing us believing we can be great again . Self loathing is not just the other blokes problem

Ignorance and Arrogance on Environment

Nothing will help modern Australian governments more than finding a way to get OBJECTIVE advice about soil water land and biodiversity questions . Neither farmers nor armchair experts and Green activists  can be trusted on this .
Our world, its wars , its food and its security in investment are dependant on getting this right  The mess of constant fighting about who knows what could go on for centuries .
There is a way forward cultivate local specific objective environment advice and ditch the empires and those who build them . A better democratic project for the 21st century I cannot think of .
Recent letter of mine to the papers .

Common advice to new Councillors is to "take expert advice seriously" . This is good advice ,but it is definitely not the best advice. The best advice is to take on " much advice " as is written on the floor of the Victorian Parliament .
The people in the big smoke don't know everything and one person can't be trusted to know all there is to know on the public good subjects in question.Sorry people, but those of you who live in cities are especially ignorant and arrogant on the subject of environmental risk --if only your leaders would admit it.    

Which of your former Councillors briefed themselves widely on the environmental risk questions which often plague their terms of office . I know having written to many many Shires on the subject of environmental risk for over thirty years, just how little that happens. The waste extends up to the golden thread weavers in Spring street who once thought they could make water .
Many post Kennett Councils have made the very bad and expensive habit of taking and seeking little advice, and from outsiders to the local area. They pay monkeys, and not with peanuts.   

Please Councillors, don't be a bunch of smart arses ( alecs) who think the only good advice comes from above.

.Democrats used to all believe in wisdom from the ground up. I wish all new Councillors well in keeping a better balance that truly respects local sources of wisdom.

Do we really need Emergency services hierarchies

The answer is No . We need leaders but not empires . Many emergencies services can be run by devolved services within existing more local organisations .The shires, hospitals police CFA and forest and  land and water management groups .  

The fact is that emergencies  don't occur every day and they are varied in their extent severity and focus. Permanent agencies are only necessary where both planning and recurrence demand it  Dedicated agencies will get lost between drinks if they don't deal with issues ( often much smaller scale and not called disasters) at very high  return periods
Risk is not an unknown in the country,  but it is to many city centrics , However well trained, city centric  managers are , they cannot have enough experience to properly  manage the range of  them unless they have worked long term at a local level . .

Much environmental risk management is best managed by people who work with related everyday issues ( soils ,water rivers  forests shires  The UFF - CFA dispute  is only the tip of an iceberg of increasing empire building and sus performance within the emergency services industry ,

Craig Lapsley and his staff have too much authority and too little responsibility . Yes govt may need agencies to show and show coordination,- but it should build, as required, from the boots up.

Anyone who knows how the modern emergency services organisation compete with each other and their members will not be surprised that we are not always getting good cost benefit from many of the new ones .

EXAMPLE September 25th September 2016    Forbes floods

'"  all sorts of dialogue is being offered up about situations where so-called managers are out of their depth."

 Incompetent comment in    Italics
Competent responses in      Normal 

"Flood waters hide deep holes and there is risk a car could overturn if a driver attempted to drive through.""  

In designing creek crossings I would consider it poor design if a 1 in 100 year flood eroded the roadway pavement . Ie any holes are Councils or Vicroads fault in most cases . Even  gravel roads should have safe crossing edges ,flood level markers and water over road signs  Public authorities should close the particular road and avoid broad blanket access  .

It is not difficult to prevent the tunneling problem but there would frankly be plenty of low flow crossings that should be on the agenda for work 

"Could get more water  in next few days"     The whole role of EM is to anticipate each situation as it likely to arises not use realtime  situation or unknowns as broad fear factors   

" this is a different flood from the last one "    Em should not talk like public do about risk , They should speak to anticipated risk directly by saying  This is a 1 in 10 i in 100 etc . Each flood behaves differently but the stream manager should be able to plan and design responses on the basis of proper risk assessment calls ( return period - likely rain ,
The geomorphology is known and an  Em who talks vaguely about breakouts and changes in flows has NOT been studying them in the many quiet times between floods . 

.
CONCLUSION
Emergency agencies are making the most of the risks,  but are not responding to them in a cost effective manner .
If the locals area reticent about their statement Ministers must take it seriously . A high  number of  disobedients may mean the agency is outta touch with real world risk management  The longer this goes on , the more the system will be corrupted

 Don;t expect the public or the media to pick a sound way through the rhetoric. Cultivating respect for leaders depends on onground credibility , consistent words and ideas like return period


FIRES
see another time 

Projection

Takes one to know one is a great test -well applied . People accuse others of things they know lots about . Tanya wants us to believe her maths is better than the incumbents when it was her party that was the one  rejected at last election for  mismanagement  of Tax .
"According to my figures " we did OK
More here 
.

One Wonderful Wednesday

I talk a lot ( please be patient and listen this time) but this Wednesday I saw the most powerful standing in silence I have ever seen.   Hours of it --It was beautiful - to be treasured forever .
I love the system of governance we have inherited. Seldom have I loved it as much as I did  on Wednesday when I stood with 3 groups outside Parliament (Victoria)
eh -Its hard to love it at moment with all the noise and superficiality ( 4wks to election)

The very founders of our Colony put gold in the roof and green wisdom on the floor , We hopefully will continue to do the same.
Study it and show yourself truly following their reliable wisdom that's fixed on the floor .IiTs beauty is more than skin deep - reliable resilient.  A place of noise yes but a place where the framework for  peace and rest has been set .
To be continued shortly

Can any good come out of ABCTV ?

Clearly yes . Tonights more interesting QANDA program probably has nothing to do with formula but  more to do with a lack of one -the old one (stacked)  .
Few polys , real diversity and few interruptions and directions by Jones always helps.
The great question and statements by the  young voter in dark suit were not adequately addressed, This is an area where SABC have little credibility - with young people .  ABCTV followup of him would make more sense than next week's worry or whatevers new campaign

The young blokes concern that BB adults are out of touch was demonstrated,  if not discussed.
All hands to him and others like him .
The Libs need to worry as Pru  seemed least exposed to the realities on the street.